Is the Dubai property price crash good news for long stay expats?

If you’re relocating to Dubai, now’s the time to make a property investment.

Amazingly, prices for villas in Dubai are now at an even lower range than after the 2008 financial crisis as well as at their lowest point since 2007. The bad – some would say good – news was released using data from a major upscale real estate agency based in the emirate, giving new expat arrivals needing a family home in a strong position as regards buying rather than renting. On average, the price for a single-family villa fell during the past year by a huge 24 per cent, a purchase price level not experienced for 11 years, even in spite of the 2008 world financial crash and several regional economic meltdowns. It’s also lower than at the time of the oil price crash in 2015 which severely affected demand for such properties.

The fall looks due to continue as, in June this year, the average price of a family home or an apartment slid 15 per cent lower than last year’s average. One reason for the unprecedented fall is, quite simply, oversupply versus diminishing demand, even although the emirate’s economy is still considered relatively robust. Non-stop development over the past few years has actually prevented appreciation of house prices over a decade or more. The hardest hit are the sprawling mansion-heavy upscale master-planned expat-oriented communities aimed at Dubai’s multi-millionaire sector.

At present, some eight million expatriates live and work in the emirate, not all of whom by a long stretch can afford the luxury of a million-dollar property in a select neighbourhood, but those on decent salaries and secure in their jobs who’d be happy to purchase a home could be looking at the opportunity of a lifetime. Unlike several other emirates, Dubai is mostly expat-friendly and is now constantly upping its image as a tourist and medical hub in order to hedge against wavering oil prices.

The decline in property prices has hit hardest in communities including Arabian Ranches, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Discovery Garden and IMPZ, all of which during the past year fell by an average of 16 per cent over the past year. On the man-made exclusivity of Palm Jumeirah, prices fell by 14 per cent over the same period, with even popular Dubai Marina overlooking its luxury yacht basin seeing falls of 13.4 per cent. For those expats hopefully planning on a long-stay involvement with the emirate, now would seem to be the time to take a chance on the ‘what goes down must come up’ theory beloved by real estate agents worldwide.